Wednesday, December 21, 2011

PDA Update 12/21/11

News from PDA 

This fall we were very pleased to be able to bring Ethan Rosenkranz on staff as Program Associate. Ethan joins PDA after working more than four years on Capitol Hill with Congresswomen Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), and Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA). While on the Hill, Ethan handled a diverse portfolio, including Appropriations, Budget, Economy, Energy, Taxes, and Veterans' Affairs. He was the principal architect of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) alternative budget resolutions for Fiscal Years 2011 and 2012, incorporating much of the defense savings outlined by the Sustainable Defense Task Force.

The experience and knowledge that Ethan brings to PDA will be invaluable to our "sustainable defense" work and our new "Reset Defense" program which aims to define and promote a more realistic, effective, and sustainable US defense posture.  Since September Ethan has been compiling and publishing PDA's semi-weekly Reset Defense Bulletin which offers news, views, and analysis on efforts to reform US defense policy, posture, and budgeting along more effective and sustainable lines.

You can subscribe to the Reset Defense Bulletin at http://defensealt.org/uzJ7yR.  If the Bulletin is not to your taste, you can unsubscribe easily on the bottom of each issue. You can view a recent archived issue at http://defensealt.org/vZQzUl.

We are very pleased that our efforts (joined by many others) over the last two years have resulted in a defense budget that will be relatively flat in real terms for last year, this year and the next several years.  Two years ago the Obama FY2010 budget had projected real continuing growth for the Pentagon budget, albeit at a slower rate than during the Bush years.  Current planning which will appear publicly in February is for a 6% cut from the 2010 projection.

But keep in mind that the Pentagon's base (non-war) budget had grown 46% in real terms since 1998. We think double or triple (12-18% vs 6% in the present plan) real cuts are reasonable and safe for the country.  So there is much more to be done.

What have we done recently?  

Earlier in the fall we were consulting with congressional "super-committee" member Rep. Xavier Becerra of California.  More recently we organized a briefing for twelve congressional aides on the prospects for change in national security strategy and budgets.

In October we published several reports relevant to the current strategic and budgetary moment: 

Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy by Carl Conetta shows how the Pentagaon's adoption of more ambitious goals, strategy, and missions after the Cold War led to today's unsustainable defense budgets. 

Strategic Adjustment to Sustain the Force: A survey of current proposals by Charles Knight is a survey of five proposals by independent experts for adjusting US global strategy to new fiscal realities in ways that enhance security while avoiding 'hollowing' of the forces. The November 18 article called Power Down in the National Journal by James Kitfield quoted from this report and its author.

Funding

We have received pledges of $70,000 in one-to-one matching contributions to new money we raise for the project.  So, if you like our work and want to make a contribution of whatever size, you can do so to our fiscal home The Commonwealth Foundation through Network for Good. Much appreciated.

Wishing you a Happy New Year!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Pentagon strategy drives up costs, but alternatives are available

Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy. Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #52, 25 October 2011. Shows how the Pentagon's adoption of more ambitious goals, strategy, and missions after the Cold War led to today's unsustainable defense budgets. Two tables.
 
Strategic Adjustment to Sustain the Force: A Survey of Current Proposals. Charles Knight. PDA Briefing Memo #51, 25 October 2011. Reviews five proposals by independent experts for adjusting US global strategy to new fiscal realities in ways that enhance security while avoiding 'hollowing' of the forces.
 
The Pentagon's New Mission Set: A Sustainable Choice? Carl Conetta. An updated and expanded excerpt from the Report of the Task Force on a Unified Security Budget (USB) for the United States, August 2011.
 
Report of the Task Force on a Unified Security Budget for the United States FY 2011. Lawrence Korb and Miriam Pemberton, principal authors. Foreign Policy in Focus and the Institute for Policy Studies, 30 June 2011. Proposals to re-balance defense, homeland security, and international affairs spending. PDA is a member of report's task force.
 
Also see:

A Year in the Fight Over Defense Spending

Pentagon Cuts in Context: No reason for "doomsday" hysteria. Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #50, 11 October 2011. Analyzes the potential impact of the Budget Control Act on the defense budget under different scenarios and compares likely future budget levels to past ones.
Pentagon Review Must Aim for More than Modest Cuts in Defense Spending. PDA Briefing Memo #49, 25 April 2011. The President's proposal to trim DoD's future budget plans by 6.5% or $400 billion over 12 years is a modest step. The forthcoming Pentagon review must aim higher in order to achieve sustainability. Two charts summarize past and planned Pentagon budgets.
 
Continuing Resolution: Congress Goes Easy on DoD. PDA Briefing Memo #48, 17 March 2011. Examines House and Senate allocation of budget cuts to defense and non-defense accounts for 2011 fiscal year.
 
The Pentagon and Deficit Reduction: FY-2012 Budget Retains Exceptional Level of Defense Spending. [HTML Version] Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #47, 1 March 2011. Reviews military spending plans for 2012-2016. 10 tables and charts.
 
Pentagon Resists Deficit Reduction. PDA Briefing Memo #46, 30 January 2011. Examines Defense Secretary Gates' offer to cut $78 billion from defense plans over five years. Two tables compare different spending scenarios.
 
Also see:

Toward a Sustainable Defense Budget


Debt, Deficits, and Defense: A Way Forward. Report of the Sustainable Defense Task Force, 11 June 2010. The seminal report that began the current debate over defense budget cuts. It presents options for reducing DoD's budget, in sum saving nearly $1 trillion over the next decade.
Rethinking our Defense Budget: Achieving National Security through Sustainable Spending. Carl Conetta written testimony for Congressional hearing on US defense spending, US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security, Homeland Defense and Foreign Operations, 20 July 2010.

Experts Letter on Defense Spending to the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, 18 November 2010. Joint declaration by 48 top scholars and practitioners of national security policy: "We can achieve safe savings in defense if we are willing to rethink how we produce military power and how, why, and where we put it to use."

For the Sake of National Security, the Pentagon Must Tighten Its Belt. Carl Conetta and Charles Knight. National Defense, May 2010

The Pentagon’s Runaway Budget. Carl Conetta. Foreign Policy in Focus, 3 March 2010.  Offers an overview of the factors driving the sharp rise in US defense spending.

Why is the Pentagon Budget So High?


The Dynamics of Defense Budget Growth, 1998-2011. Carl Conetta presentation at US Naval War College workshop, "Economics and Security: Resourcing National Priorities," 19–21 May 2010. Published in Richmond Lloyd, ed., Economics and Security: Resourcing National Priorities (Newport RI: Naval War College Press, 2010).

Time To Get Serious about DoD Reform. C. Conetta and C. Knight. Defense News, 21 February 2010.

An Undisciplined Defense: Understanding the $2 Trillion Surge in US Defense Spending.  PDA Briefing Report #20, 18 January 2010. Carl Conetta.  Analyzes the steep rise in defense spending since 1998. 21 charts and tables.
The President's Dilemma: Debt, Deficits, and Defense Spending. PDA Briefing Memo #45, 18 January 2010. The nation faces Reagan-level deficit spending and greatly increased debt. Can the president's program of high defense spending and increased non-defense spending survive?

Graphs

What Are the Goals of Recent US Defense Strategy?

Forceful Engagement: Rethinking the Role of Military Power in US Global Policy. Dec 2008. The US has been using its armed forces beyond the limit of their utility.
A Prisoner to Primacy. [HTML Version] PDA Briefing Memo #43, 05 February 2008.  The US security policy debate remains paralyzed by 9/11 and mesmerized by military primacy. Progress depends on rethinking the role of force.

Cul de Sac: 9/11 and the Paradox of American Power. [HTML Version] PDA Research Monograph #13, 05 February 2008. Post-Cold War US security policy evinces a disturbing paradox: it has been delivering less and less security at ever increasing cost.

Dissuading China and Fighting the 'Long War.'  Carl Conetta. World Policy Journal, June 2006. The 2006 US Defense Review advanced two new strategic vectors for the US armed forces - one targets a putative "global Islamic insurgency"; the other puts America on a collision course with China.