Monday, February 20, 2012

PDA Update - February, 2012

It has been a busy winter for PDA with the long anticipated release of the Pentagon's strategic guidance in January followed by the FY2013 budget release in February.  PDA prepared briefing materials for circulation to journalists, analysts, advocates and grass roots activists before each of these official events and was sought after for analysis and comment by journalists as demonstrated by the press citations listed below.

Here are the briefing materials PDA produced:

Defense Strategy ReviewDoes Obama Run Hot or Cold on Defense?  When analyzing the budget request in 2013 dollars, Carl Conetta finds that the administration’s spending request is still far above the Cold War average of $443 billion per year.  (2/13/12)


The Project on Defense Alternatives: Panetta Releases DoD "Austerity" Budget; Pentagon Retains Most of Post-1998 Increase.  Carl Conetta examines the administration’s FY13 budget request in historical terms and finds that DoD spending, both under current law as well as under sequestration, would still be higher than the inflation-adjusted average for the Cold War years.  (1/26/12)

Recent Press Citations

San Francisco ChronicleDefense Cuts Are a Drop in the Bucket.  The Chronicle’s Carolyn Lochhead surveys BPWG members Winslow Wheeler, Christopher Preble, and Carl Conetta for their thoughts on the recently released defense budget.  (2/13/12)

Wall Street JournalWhite House Proposes Cap on Wartime Spending.  The White House has proposed a $450 billion cap on war fundingover the next ten years, and will use a portion of the savings to fund infrastructure investments domestically.  However, should OCO funding spike in future years, it is unlikely that the lost savings would come out of the DoD base budget.  (2/13/12)

National Defense2013 Defense Budget Rollout: Just the Opening Salvo.  Sandra Erwin finds that the Pentagon’s budget request keeps military spending at historically high levels despite persistently high budget deficits, with Charles Knight commenting that the budget “does not signal a new era of ‘restrained military posture for the United States.’”  (2/13/12)

Wall Street Journal: Military Faces Historic Shift.  The Wall Street Journal covers reaction to the strategic review, with Charles Knight pointing out that the “first strategic priority of the United States is getting its economic house in order.  Doing this means spending less on the military in coming years.”  (1/6/12)

Congressional Quarterly: Defense Lobbyists, Contractors Begin to Speculate Where Cuts Will Hit.  Frank Oliveri surveys defense analysts’ predictions on how the defense budget will be trimmed, with Charles Knight forecasting “I don’t think we’re at the end of this.”  (1/6/12) 

BBC: Pentagon Cuts: What Will the New US Military Look Like?  Heather Hurlburt discusses potential policy changes that may emanate from the Pentagon’s strategy review, including decreased Army troop levels, while Charles Knight points out that a smaller Army would increase pressure on the National Guard and Reserves should a large scale counter-insurgency or ground war occur.  (1/5/12) 

Boston GlobePentagon Should Do More Cutting, Less Complaining About Budget.  Citing PDA’s figure that the Pentagon has spent $32 billion on cancelled weapons systems, the Boston Globe editorial board urges DoD to be smarter about procurement decisions.   (1/2/12) 

Key Activities

PDA prepared a draft "bottom up" Reasonable Defense posture plan which Carl Conetta presented at Congresswoman Barbara Lee's request to the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) Policy Summit meeting in Baltimore on January 19th.  PDA is currently completing a full version of this post-Iraq/Afghanistan wars posture plan which will help progressives to have a strong and articulate position on national security looking forward.  It also provides guidance to the nation on how to make deeper cuts in the military budget without the disruption built into the 'sequester' provisions of the Budget Control Act.

PDA worked with Progressive Congress and the CPC to organize a strategy and budget briefing for more than a dozen congressional offices.

PDA consulted with the office of Rep. Edward Markey on details of savings estimates for reducing the future number of strategic missile submarines as part of a comprehensive strategic nuclear force reduction legislation the congressman is introducing.  Since 2010 when the Sustainable Defense Task Force proposed reducing the deployed strategic warhead force from 1550 in the New START treaty to 1000, we are gratified to have witnessed this issue open up with new attention to significant cuts.

New Resource Pages from PDA

·         The Pentagon Budget and Jobs: How Does Defense Spending Rate for Job Creation?
·         A Short Tour of Pentagon Financial Mismanagement, Waste, Fraud, and Abuse

PDA Reset Defense Bulletin

The Project on Defense Alternatives publishes a semi-weekly newsletter, which provides readers with the latest developments and news items pertaining to the reformulation of U.S. defense policy and budgeting.  To subscribe to the PDA Reset Defense Bulletin, please click here.

Friday, January 06, 2012

PDA Responds to Pentagon Strategic Review

On Thursday, January 5th  President Barack Obama, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, and General Martin Dempsey briefed the press on the results of an eight-month strategy review that will guide future budget decisions.  The strategic review comes at the behest of President Obama, who, in April 2011, directed senior Pentagon officials to conduct a fundamental review of America’s defense posture in order to identify options for saving roughly $487 billion over ten years relative to the President’s previous budget request.   Last fall, Secretary Panetta cited $260 billion as the savings target for Fiscal Years 2013 to 2017.  (Additional PDA analysis of the administration’s upcoming budget request can be found here).

Reflecting new strategic realities, the review calls for an increased focus on power projection and deterrence in the Asia Pacific region while using “innovative methods” to sustain the U.S. presence in Africa and Latin America.   The review also calls for an evolving military posture in Europe that will enhance the capabilities of America’s allies.  The President acknowledged that shifting priorities will require the United States to eliminate outdated Cold War-era systems as well as altering the size and composition of U.S. ground forces.  Finally, the President made clear that the era of long-term nation building operations has come to a close.

Although the President and his advisors declined to cite specific policy changes during today’s press conference, unnamed Pentagon officials have hinted that reductions in planned procurement of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter; delay in development of the new Ford-class aircraft carrier; a reduction in Army and Marine Corps end strength; and a decrease in U.S. military’s presence in Europe may be forthcoming.  Additional details will be revealed in the President’s Fiscal Year 2013 budget request, which is expected to be released later this month.

Commentary on the Strategic Guidance:

Charles Knight, co-director, Project on Defense Alternatives

National strategy must always adjust to new challenges and changing resource conditions.   The first strategic priority of the United States today is to get its economic house in order.   Doing this means spending less on the military in coming years.  The changes announced by the President and Defense Secretary are only baby steps forward.  The nation needs more and bigger steps to follow.

It is misleading to fuss about the two war construct as if it were strategic doctrine.  The U.S. did not simultaneously undertake the intense fighting phases of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.  Its military problems in those conflicts are associated with subsequent commitments to counterinsurgency and nation building.  As with World War II, the long-standing American practice is for sequential focused action in different theaters.  What has been called a strategy of “win, hold, win” is simply being sensible.  It means not falling for the hubris that our military can do everything, everywhere at once.

Carl Conetta, co-director, Project on Defense Alternatives

Despite all the hyperbole surrounding it, the administration’s proposal to roll back the Department of Defense budget for Fiscal Years 2013-2017 by $260 billion doesn’t amount to much of a reduction from recent spending levels – about 4 percent in real terms. The roll back does appear more significant when measured against previous spending plans, however.  But that’s only because, to varying degrees, those plans aimed to continue the real growth in the Pentagon’s base budget that’s been underway since 1998.

Viewed in this light, the new strategic review has less to do with rethinking America’s actual role in the world than with revising some of the ambitions expressed in the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and 2011 National Military Strategy.

Relevant Reports

·         Keep Pentagon Cuts in Perspective: What the Administration Proposes is Hardly Dramatic, January 2012, by Carl Conetta
·         Strategic Adjustments to Sustain the Force: A Survey of Current Proposals, October 2011, by Charles Knight
·         The Pentagon’s News Mission Set: A Sustainable Choice?, October 2011, by Carl Conetta
·         Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy, October 2011, by Carl Conetta
·         Pentagon Cuts in Context: No Reason for “Doomsday” Hysteria, October 2011, by Carl Conetta

Relevant Resource Pages

·         The Pentagon Budget and Jobs: How Does Defense Spending Rate for Job Creation?
·         A Short Tour of Pentagon Financial Mismanagement, Waste, Fraud, and Abuse

PDA Reset Defense Bulletin

The Project on Defense Alternatives publishes a semi-weekly newsletter, which provides readers with the latest developments and news items pertaining to the reformulation of U.S. defense policy and budgeting.  To subscribe to the PDA Reset Defense Bulletin, please click here.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

PDA Update 12/21/11

News from PDA 

This fall we were very pleased to be able to bring Ethan Rosenkranz on staff as Program Associate. Ethan joins PDA after working more than four years on Capitol Hill with Congresswomen Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), and Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA). While on the Hill, Ethan handled a diverse portfolio, including Appropriations, Budget, Economy, Energy, Taxes, and Veterans' Affairs. He was the principal architect of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) alternative budget resolutions for Fiscal Years 2011 and 2012, incorporating much of the defense savings outlined by the Sustainable Defense Task Force.

The experience and knowledge that Ethan brings to PDA will be invaluable to our "sustainable defense" work and our new "Reset Defense" program which aims to define and promote a more realistic, effective, and sustainable US defense posture.  Since September Ethan has been compiling and publishing PDA's semi-weekly Reset Defense Bulletin which offers news, views, and analysis on efforts to reform US defense policy, posture, and budgeting along more effective and sustainable lines.

You can subscribe to the Reset Defense Bulletin at http://defensealt.org/uzJ7yR.  If the Bulletin is not to your taste, you can unsubscribe easily on the bottom of each issue. You can view a recent archived issue at http://defensealt.org/vZQzUl.

We are very pleased that our efforts (joined by many others) over the last two years have resulted in a defense budget that will be relatively flat in real terms for last year, this year and the next several years.  Two years ago the Obama FY2010 budget had projected real continuing growth for the Pentagon budget, albeit at a slower rate than during the Bush years.  Current planning which will appear publicly in February is for a 6% cut from the 2010 projection.

But keep in mind that the Pentagon's base (non-war) budget had grown 46% in real terms since 1998. We think double or triple (12-18% vs 6% in the present plan) real cuts are reasonable and safe for the country.  So there is much more to be done.

What have we done recently?  

Earlier in the fall we were consulting with congressional "super-committee" member Rep. Xavier Becerra of California.  More recently we organized a briefing for twelve congressional aides on the prospects for change in national security strategy and budgets.

In October we published several reports relevant to the current strategic and budgetary moment: 

Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy by Carl Conetta shows how the Pentagaon's adoption of more ambitious goals, strategy, and missions after the Cold War led to today's unsustainable defense budgets. 

Strategic Adjustment to Sustain the Force: A survey of current proposals by Charles Knight is a survey of five proposals by independent experts for adjusting US global strategy to new fiscal realities in ways that enhance security while avoiding 'hollowing' of the forces. The November 18 article called Power Down in the National Journal by James Kitfield quoted from this report and its author.

Funding

We have received pledges of $70,000 in one-to-one matching contributions to new money we raise for the project.  So, if you like our work and want to make a contribution of whatever size, you can do so to our fiscal home The Commonwealth Foundation through Network for Good. Much appreciated.

Wishing you a Happy New Year!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Pentagon strategy drives up costs, but alternatives are available

Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy. Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #52, 25 October 2011. Shows how the Pentagon's adoption of more ambitious goals, strategy, and missions after the Cold War led to today's unsustainable defense budgets. Two tables.
 
Strategic Adjustment to Sustain the Force: A Survey of Current Proposals. Charles Knight. PDA Briefing Memo #51, 25 October 2011. Reviews five proposals by independent experts for adjusting US global strategy to new fiscal realities in ways that enhance security while avoiding 'hollowing' of the forces.
 
The Pentagon's New Mission Set: A Sustainable Choice? Carl Conetta. An updated and expanded excerpt from the Report of the Task Force on a Unified Security Budget (USB) for the United States, August 2011.
 
Report of the Task Force on a Unified Security Budget for the United States FY 2011. Lawrence Korb and Miriam Pemberton, principal authors. Foreign Policy in Focus and the Institute for Policy Studies, 30 June 2011. Proposals to re-balance defense, homeland security, and international affairs spending. PDA is a member of report's task force.
 
Also see:

A Year in the Fight Over Defense Spending

Pentagon Cuts in Context: No reason for "doomsday" hysteria. Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #50, 11 October 2011. Analyzes the potential impact of the Budget Control Act on the defense budget under different scenarios and compares likely future budget levels to past ones.
Pentagon Review Must Aim for More than Modest Cuts in Defense Spending. PDA Briefing Memo #49, 25 April 2011. The President's proposal to trim DoD's future budget plans by 6.5% or $400 billion over 12 years is a modest step. The forthcoming Pentagon review must aim higher in order to achieve sustainability. Two charts summarize past and planned Pentagon budgets.
 
Continuing Resolution: Congress Goes Easy on DoD. PDA Briefing Memo #48, 17 March 2011. Examines House and Senate allocation of budget cuts to defense and non-defense accounts for 2011 fiscal year.
 
The Pentagon and Deficit Reduction: FY-2012 Budget Retains Exceptional Level of Defense Spending. [HTML Version] Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #47, 1 March 2011. Reviews military spending plans for 2012-2016. 10 tables and charts.
 
Pentagon Resists Deficit Reduction. PDA Briefing Memo #46, 30 January 2011. Examines Defense Secretary Gates' offer to cut $78 billion from defense plans over five years. Two tables compare different spending scenarios.
 
Also see: